The dramatic
spikes in oil and mineral prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
have distracted investors from the
long-lasting and more
dangerous impact of
food inflation,
BlackRock founder Larry Fink has warned.
“The one
thing I worry about that we don’t talk enough about is food,” he told
the Financial Times. “This
isn’t just
an inflation
concern. There
are also
geopolitical concerns that
result from
this.”
The prices
of energy, petrol and petroleum-based agricultural inputs shot up
earlier this year when
western nations
imposed sanctions
on Russia
after the
invasion. Grain
and edible
oil costs were also
hit hard because Ukraine is a major exporter.
Oil has
begun to drop back down this week to
pre-invasion
levels
as traders brace for a sharp drop-off in
consumption. But food price inflation remains stubbornly high. The US
consumer price index figures for
June show
that the
price of
chicken parts
and flour
are each
up close
to 20 per cent year
on year and margarine has jumped 34 per cent.
“We
talk a
lot about
gasoline prices
because that’s
what affects
Americans but
the bigger
issue is food,” Fink
said. “There has been tremendous destruction of arable land in
Ukraine….Globally the
cost of
fertiliser is up
almost 100
per cent
and that
additional cost is
reducing the
amount of fertiliser
used in farming That is
harming the quality of the crop worldwide.”
Larry Fink: ‘This
isn’t just an inflation concern. There are also geopolitical
concerns that result from this’ © Bloomberg |
Although
lower oil prices have started to feed through to the price at the pump
for motorists, consumer
goods companies
are continuing
to see
high input
costs. Any
drop in
fertiliser prices
is likely to come too late to boost this year’s food harvests.
The
World
Bank
forecast
after the
invasion that
global food
prices would
rise 20
per cent
this year, far outpacing raw materials.
The impact
is particularly grim in Africa, which usually imports grain from
Ukraine as well as producing its own food. Fertiliser prices there
have risen 300 per cent, and the continent is facing a shortage of 2mn
metric tons, according to the African Development Bank. It has
approved
a
$1.5bn
programme to
help farmers
fill the
gap but
warns that
total production
could fall by 20 per cent this year.
Janet
Yellen, the
US Treasury
secretary, said
on Friday
that the
world was
facing “an
extremely difficult time for global food security” and urged
the G20 group of leading nations to halt stockpiling and export
restrictions on food and provide additional financial assistance to
countries and people struggling with food insecurity.
Bill Gates,
the philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder, flagged similar concerns
this week, saying that
the reduction
in supplies
of wheat,
edible oils
and other
foods caused
by the
war in Ukraine was
“driving up food prices, which will increase malnutrition and
instability in low-income
countries.” He
noted in
a blog
post that
improving
agricultural productivity in
Africa required “far more investment”.
While
some consumer
products makers
and food
retailers say
they are
hopeful that
food price inflation
will begin to ease, others are preparing for the worst.
Snack
foodmaker Mondelez is seeing so much inflation and “availability
issues” in edible oils and
grains that
“we are
looking into
flexible formulation to make
sure that
we can
replace some
ingredients and components that are in shortage with something that is
more available,” Luca Zaramella, the chief financial officer said last
month.
General
Mills is predicting a “significant step up in input cost inflation” to
14 per cent for the fiscal year that
started in
June. CEO
Jeff Harmening said last
month that
the maker
of Cheerios as
well as
Pillsbury and Betty
Crocker home
baking products
expects to
see “reduced
consumer spending power”.
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