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Editor’s Note:
Marco Becht is
a Professor of Finance at Solvay Brussels School, Université Libre
de Bruxelles; Julian
Franks is
a Professor of Finance at London Business School; and Hannes
F. Wagner is
a Professor of Finance at Bocconi University. This post is based
on their recent article,
forthcoming in the Journal
of Finance. |
Private meetings between institutional investors and the boards and
management of their portfolio firms have grown substantially worldwide
as investors comply with stewardship codes and engage in active
ownership. At the same time, these meetings are frequently
undisclosed, raising concerns about fair disclosure and insider
trading. While prior research has studied investor engagement through
the lens of activist
campaigns or global
activism patterns, little is known about the
day-to-day private interactions between mainstream asset managers and
their portfolio companies. In our paper, The
Benefits of Access: Evidence from Private Meetings with Portfolio
Firms, forthcoming in the Journal
of Finance, we use large language models (LLMs) to analyze the
content of 4,700 private meetings between a large active asset manager
and its portfolio firms and examine how the information obtained in
these meetings affects trading decisions and performance.
We find that private meetings convey predominantly soft information —
qualitative, judgment-laden assessments that require interpretation —
rather than hard, quantitative facts. This soft information
significantly influences fund managers’ trading decisions, with
meeting-informed portfolios generating substantial outperformance.
Even after controlling for the presence of hard information, soft
information remains the primary driver of trading around meetings. Our
results show that the value of private meetings lies in the
accumulation of soft, contextual insight — the kind of information
that is difficult to transmit and hard to interpret. In a regulatory
environment with strict enforcement against trading on material
nonpublic information, stewardship engagement generates value through
the gathering and interpretation of soft information. Our evidence
informs the debate as to the balance between transparency and the need
for private, candid interactions between asset managers and portfolio
firms.
The Data
Our data come from the equity investments of the world’s 30th largest
active asset manager in 2017, Standard Life Investments (now Aberdeen
Investments). The data cover the period 2007 to 2015 and include
detailed meeting notes, daily fund-level holdings totaling 10.45
million positions, internal analyst recommendations, and shareholder
votes. We observe two types of private meetings. Fund manager (FM)
meetings are convened by the analyst responsible for a given sector
and typically involve senior management of the portfolio firm,
including the CEO and CFO. There are 3,410 such meetings, with an
average portfolio firm market capitalization of US$7.7 billion.
Governance specialist (GS) meetings focus on environmental, social,
and governance (ESG) risks and are typically held with the
Chairperson, nonexecutive directors, and chairs of key board
committees. There are 1,285 GS meetings, allocated to more important
stock positions and often triggered by an active governance health
warning.
Analyzing Meeting Content with Large Language Models
The meeting notes in our sample are long, averaging up to 2,200 words,
with hundreds of meetings taking place each year. Extracting complex
text-based information at this scale has been beyond the reach of
researchers until recently, with the advent of large language models.
We combine LLM processing with traditional natural language processing
and human labeling to analyze the content of these meetings. We assign
the LLM the role of a finance expert and parse all meeting notes
through its API.
The LLM classifies information as hard (quantitative, easily
transmissible) or soft (qualitative, requiring interpretation). For
the full sample, 67% of meeting information is soft and only 33% is
hard. The dominance of soft information is even more pronounced in the
conclusions that fund managers draw from meetings, where soft
information accounts for 79% of the content. We further decompose soft
information by subject and find that 72% relates to the firm, 19% to
the industry, and 9% to the market. Meeting content differs markedly
between the two meeting types: FM meetings focus on business models,
cost and efficiency, and growth, while GS meetings are dominated by
audit and compliance, sustainability and corporate responsibility, and
remuneration.
To illustrate the LLM’s capabilities, consider a December 2015 meeting
with the Chairman of Carillion, a multinational construction firm. The
meeting note describes the Chairman as appearing to be a “light touch”
who “had just returned from Lesotho by way of a spa in Thailand” while
admitting that the company “hadn’t really made any progress” on
strategy. The LLM correctly interprets the Chairman’s being “busy” as
a negative signal about monitoring, classifying the topics as
“leadership dynamics,” “CEO mentoring,” and “governance reporting.”
Two weeks later, the internal analyst downgraded the firm from “Hold”
to “Sell.” Carillion subsequently collapsed in January 2018.
We also use the LLM to perform cluster analysis, identifying 17,452
unique meeting topics in a first pass, which are then iteratively
aggregated into 53 subject categories. Using supervised machine
learning, we confirm that the content of meetings differs
systematically depending on who convenes the meeting. GS meetings are
best identified by words like “governance,” “board,” “chairman,” and
“remuneration,” while FM meetings are best discriminated by “broker,”
“growth,” “margin,” “cost,” and “buy.”
Private Meetings and Trading
We examine the relation between private meetings and daily
trading activity. During the [0, 5]-day window
around FM meetings, the average fund that trades increases its
position by 3.2% per day, while around GS meetings it decreases its
position by 2.3% per day. The opposite trading directions reflect the
different information content: FM meetings tend to be interpreted
positively, while GS meetings, which often take place against a
background of concern, tend to be interpreted negatively. Both the
size and the sign of the trading response depend on the information
content of meetings, particularly soft information. Our estimates,
based on daily data, are orders of magnitude larger than those in
prior studies that infer trading from institutional quarterly holdings
in 13-F filings. Compared with Bradley,
Jame, and Williams (2022), who find that nondeal
roadshow meetings increase implied daily trading by about 1.4%, our FM
meeting daily trading estimates of 3.2% are more than twice as large.
We show that trading on meeting days is significantly more pronounced
for meetings assessed as unusually high or low quality by fund
managers, that are high profile with respect to portfolio firm
attendees, and that are unusually positive or negative based on
meeting sentiment. An interesting feature of our results is that only
a minority of positions trade in response to the information from
private meetings. Using the LLM, we show that one reason for reduced
trading is a lack of consensus: when the information in a meeting is
assessed as subject to interpretation, there is significantly less
trading.
Soft Information in a Strict Regulatory Environment
A natural question is whether the trading we observe could be driven
by material nonpublic information (MNPI) rather than by the soft
information content of meetings. To address this, we use the LLM to
systematically screen all meeting notes for nonpublic information. We
follow the Securities
and Exchange Commission and consider as
MNPI any information which, if known, could reasonably be expected to
move a firm’s stock price.
The LLM assesses 98% of meetings as “not at all likely” to discuss
nonpublic information and 1% as “slightly likely.” We read the
remaining roughly 1% of meeting notes, since they are LLM-assessed as
“moderately likely” or higher, and after adjusting for false
positives, we confirm that only 17 meetings, or 0.4% of the total,
discuss nonpublic information. These meetings cover topics such as
next-day quarterly earnings, CEO departures, M&A deals with
competitors, and rights issues. To our knowledge, this is the first
sample of MNPI-related private meetings between an institutional
investor and its portfolio firms.
We find no evidence of trading around meetings where MNPI is
discussed. Event-time estimates show that all trading coefficients
around these meetings are statistically indistinguishable from zero.
This confirms that the trading patterns we document are driven by the
soft information gathered in meetings, not by access to hard,
price-sensitive facts. The United Kingdom’s strict “parity of
information” regime, which requires listed companies to disclose all
MNPI as soon as possible, appears to function as intended: private
meetings operate within the boundaries of fair disclosure, and the
information advantage they confer stems from the interpretation of
soft, contextual insight.
Performance
The large volume of trading around meetings is economically important.
We calculate the actual money made by the asset manager through active
trading around private meetings. For FM meetings, fund managers earn
15 to 19 basis points per position during a [0, 5]-day window around
the meeting, depending on assumptions about intraday trade execution.
For GS meetings, the corresponding figure is 7 basis points per
position. Interestingly, not all funds trade in response to meetings,
which limits the aggregate profits from this channel. To benchmark the
potential value of meeting information, we also construct hypothetical
long-short portfolios. A meeting-informed portfolio combining both FM
and GS meetings generates a significant alpha of 180 basis points per
month, compared with 49 basis points for a portfolio without any
meetings. The difference suggests that the information conveyed in
meetings creates profitable trading opportunities beyond the skill
already reflected in non-meeting trading.
Regulatory Implications
Our evidence speaks directly to the regulatory debate around private
meetings. We show that private meetings convey mostly soft
information, which is used for profitable trading. Where we identify
meeting notes that contain MNPI, we find no evidence of trading. Since
our analysis relies on the meeting notes, we cannot exclude the
possibility that they do not reflect the full conversation. If the
regulatory goal is a level playing field, then allowing private
meetings seems inconsistent with that goal, since even soft
information can provide active asset managers with a competitive edge.
At the same time, private meetings satisfy commitments to active
ownership and investor stewardship. Our evidence informs the debate as
to the balance between transparency and the need for private, candid
interactions between asset managers and portfolio firms. Active
management, through direct engagement and the gathering of soft
information, can create opportunities for profitable trading that
passive strategies cannot benefit from, a finding relevant to the
ongoing debate about the efficacy and value of active management.
The full paper is available here (Journal
of Finance) and here (SSRN).
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