February
19, 2013 12:23 PM Eastern Time
Relational Investors LLC and CalSTRS Urge Timken’s Board to Take Action to
Separate the Company’s Businesses to Unlock Shareholder Value
SAN
DIEGO--(BUSINESS
WIRE)--Relational Investors LLC (“Relational”) announced today
that Relational and the California State Teachers Retirement System (“CalSTRS”),
collectively owners of 7.31% of The Timken Company, (NYSE: TKR) (“Timken”
or “the Company”), have sent a joint letter to the Board of Directors of
Timken urging a separation of Timken’s steel and bearings businesses to
unlock significant value for all shareholders.
Relational
had previously presented a detailed analysis to Timken’s management and
Board on August 23, 2012. In that analysis, Relational demonstrated the
deep undervaluation of Timken’s shares due to the company’s conglomerate
structure. By separating the steel and bearing businesses, Timken would
realize improved operating performance and the investment community could
appropriately value the earnings profile of each business – resulting in
maximized shareholder value and long-term potential for these businesses
and the communities that they serve.
In their
letter, Relational and CalSTRS highlight key aspects of this analysis as
well as recent excerpts from third-party analyst reports, demonstrating
broad support by the investment community for a separation of Timken’s
businesses.
Among the
main points contained in their letter to the Board are:
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A
Separation Will Enable a Fundamental Change To Valuation:
The Company trades at a steep discount due to the widely divergent
characteristics of its businesses, and a separation of the Steel
business would fundamentally change the way the businesses are valued by
the market.
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A
Separation Will Increase Management And Investor Focus:
The Company will be able to optimally manage each business
independently, leading to more efficient capital allocation and the
potential to trade at multiples near the high end of their peer range.
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Spin-Off
Transactions Have Created Substantial Value For Shareholder’s In The
Past:
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Timken’s closest bearings peer, SKF, separated its steel business and
returned 59% vs. Timken’s return of 10% over the same period.
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Marathon Oil separated its refining operations and the stock returned
40% compared to only 10% for the S&P 500 Energy Index over that time
period.
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Now Is
The Optimal Time To Separate The Businesses:
The costs of a sub-optimal business mix compound over time, so now is
the time to focus on optimally managing each independent business.
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Separation Should Not Be Disruptive To Timken and the Community:
A separation should not meaningfully disrupt the Canton community or
Timken’s employees. The Timken name and Canton headquarters can and
should survive with both businesses operating as independent entities.
-
The
Timken Company Has A History Of Poor Corporate Governance:
The Timken Family holds 3 of 11 Board seats; the $9M compensation
received by executive Chairman Ward Timken, Jr., is grossly out of line
with other executive chairmen in Timken’s peer group; the Company’s
pay-for-performance scheme received a “D” rating in 2012 by Glass Lewis,
a prominent independent proxy advisory service; and the Board has
consistently demonstrated its unwillingness to seriously consider
strategies to increase shareholder value.
Relational
and CalSTRS call for Timken’s Board to promptly respond to the investment
community and take action to separate the Company’s businesses to unlock
value for all shareholders. They emphasize that Timken is well positioned
financially and operationally to effectuate the separation of its steel
and bearings businesses, while explaining that management’s public
statements against the suggested transaction are not supported by
empirical evidence, nor persuasive to investors.
Relational
and CalSTRS expressed their intent to continue to dialogue with
shareholders and the broader investment community about the value creation
potential of the separation of Timken’s steel business. Their hope is that
investors communicate their views directly with the Company, prompting the
Board to act now to effectuate a separation, reserving the opportunity to
make a clear public statement of their support through their votes at the
annual meeting on the shareholder proposal CalSTRS sponsored, with the
support of Relational, as disclosed in their Schedule 13D filed November
28, 2012, as amended February 19, 2013.
Attached is
the letter from Relational and CalSTRS to the Timken Board of Directors.
About
Relational Investors LLC:
Relational
Investors LLC, founded in 1996, is a privately held, multi-billion dollar
asset management firm and registered investment adviser. Relational
invests in publicly traded companies that it believes are undervalued in
the marketplace. The firm seeks to engage the management, board of
directors, and shareholders of its portfolio companies in a productive
dialogue designed to build a consensus for positive change to improve
shareholder value.
About the
California State Teachers Retirement System:
The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) is a public
pension fund established for the benefit of California’s public school
teachers over 100 years ago. CalSTRS serves the investment and retirement
interests of over 856,000 plan participants. As of December 31, 2012 the
CalSTRS portfolio was valued at over $157 billion; approximately
$76 billion of the fund’s assets are invested in the public equity
markets, on both a domestic and an international basis.
***
Relational Investors LLC |
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California State Teachers’ Retirement System |
12400
High Bluff Drive, Suite 600 |
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100
Waterfront Place, MS-04 |
San
Diego, CA
92130 |
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West
Sacramento, CA 95605-2807 |
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VIA
ELECTRONIC AND OVERNIGHT MAIL
February
19, 2013
Mr. Ward J.
Timken, Jr.
Chairman of the Board
Timken Corporation
1835 Dueber Ave. S.W.
Canton, OH 44706
Dear Mr.
Timken:
As you know
from our meetings with management and representatives of the Board on May
18 and August 23, 2012, respectively, we believe that Timken’s shares are
trading at a substantial discount to its peers’, even after the recent
share price appreciation. As we shared with you, our analysis clearly
identifies that this discount results, in large part, from Timken’s
integrated structure which combines two incongruent core businesses -
Steel and Bearings.
Moreover,
we have shown both the Board and management through our analysis that
separating the Steel business segment (“Steel Business”) from the
remaining business segments (collectively, “Bearings Business”) would
unlock significant shareholder value and enable these businesses to
perform optimally over the long-term, maximizing the benefits for all
their constituencies.
In
addition, numerous third-party analyst reports have been published
reinforcing our message, that the separation of these businesses should
achieve enhanced value for Timken shareholders. We want to ensure that, as
fiduciaries for all shareholders, the Board has access to the more recent
of these third-party investment community reports examining the important
strategic opportunity for Timken to unlock shareholder value through a
separation of the Steel and Bearings businesses. Accordingly, we have sent
a copy of this letter to each of the Company’s directors.
As
summarized below, the analyst community, through its own independent,
objective analyses, has also reached a consensus that a spin-off of the
Steel Business will maximize shareholder value. Furthermore, since filing
our Schedule 13D on November 28, 2012, we have received phone calls from
the investment community that have increased our confidence that
shareholders of Timken want and would support a spin-off. Given these
facts, we urge the Board to read both the excerpts from the analyst
reports below as well as the full reports themselves, a list of which is
attached:
“Our
sum-of-the-parts valuation suggests a $69 target price ($52 + $17).
However, given the disparate nature of the assets and investors’
preference for pure plays, we believe that an above-average conglomerate
discount is likely required to entice investors. Assuming a 20%
discount to the sum-of-the-parts valuation yields a price target of
$55/share. A case could be made for a narrowing of the conglomerate
discount if the management signaled a potential separation.”1
“Our sum of
the parts … suggests a valuation closer to $55, but we agree that the
market is unlikely to properly reward either the steel or the bearing
business for the secular improvements they have made as long as these
businesses remain combined.”2
“In the
long run, however, we agree with Relational and CalSTRS’s positioning that
the company would perform better if it separated into two separate
entities. As only 10% of steel volumes are used in the bearings business,
vertical integration is limited. Also, given the highly volatile nature of
the steel industry (steel operating profit fell $320M over four quarters
in 2009), we believe that Timken’s valuation multiple is negatively
affected, particularly during an upcycle. Management has confirmed this
since we started covering the company in 2009. While there are multiple
issues to splitting up the company, … we believe that the bearing business
could be revalued given the high-margin nature and large emerging market
exposure that garners higher growth rates. Given high profitability and
specialized nature of the steel product, we believe the steel business
could be floated at relatively solid multiples…”3
Given the
analysis we have presented to Timken and analyst support for a separation
of the businesses, the Board should not continue to allow management to
obstinately take the position with the investment community that a
spin-off of the Steel Business is not in the best interest of shareholders
at this time, without providing any credible rationale for this position.
In the months since our May meeting, management has had ample access to
the investment community to make its case for the Company’s “conglomerate”
structure. Likewise, we cannot find any analyst reports that make a strong
argument against separating the Steel and Bearing Businesses and unlocking
the Company’s true value for all shareholders.
Fundamental
Change to Valuation
As the
Board is aware from prior discussions based on our analysis, we presented
compelling evidence that a separation of the Steel Business would
fundamentally change the way the market values Timken’s businesses.
Specifically, the Steel Business would be valued and classified as a
“materials” company and the Bearings Business would remain an “industrial”
company. Unfortunately, the response we received from and subsequent
public statements by management continue to discount the value available
to shareholders from a separation of the two businesses. As reasoned in
our Schedule 13D, and sustained by a number of analysts and shareholders,
management is incorrect in its belief that the existing trading discount
will dissipate with improving returns and decreasing volatility in the
Steel Business. As we have explained to the Board and as reflected in the
sentiment of the analysts cited above, even if such improvements come to
fruition, the Company will continue to trade at a discount due to the
widely divergent characteristics of the businesses. Management and the
market recognize that these two divergent businesses require different
working capital, capital investments, business processes, manufacturing
techniques, and management talents to achieve optimal performance.
Timken’s
stock price outperformed the S&P MidCap 400 Index by 11% on the day4
we publicly put forward our recommendation to split the businesses in
order to unlock shareholder value. The stock has since outperformed the
Index by an additional 12%5. A significant portion of this
stock price appreciation, we believe, is the result of shareholder
anticipation of a separation of the Steel Business. Yet, even with this
stock appreciation, based on peer multiples, Timken’s share price
continues to trade at a meaningful discount to the sum of its parts
valuation as shown in the chart below:
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EV/EBITDA
Valuation |
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2013 |
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Pension |
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2013
EBITDA |
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Peer |
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Enterprise |
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Equity Val. |
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EBITDA* |
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Addback |
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Ex.
Pension |
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Multiple |
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Value |
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Per
Share |
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Bearings |
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$647
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$51
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$699
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8.7x
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$6,081
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$56.27 |
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Steel
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$189 |
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$14 |
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$203 |
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7.9x |
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$1,600 |
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$14.81 |
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Total
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$837
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$65
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$902
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8.5x
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$7,681
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$71.07 |
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Enterprise Value |
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$7,681
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Net
Debt |
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($107)
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Pension
Liability |
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$398
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Other
Postretirement |
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$372
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Transaction Fees |
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$200 |
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Equity
Value |
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$6,819
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Share
Count |
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95.9
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Value per Share |
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$71.07 |
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Current
Price |
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$56.25
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Upside |
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26% |
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*Totals
to 2013 FactSet Consensus EBITDA of $861M minus $25M of incremental
corporate expense |
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A
Separation Will Increase Management and Investor Focus
We, and
others in the investment community, are confident that separating the two
businesses will allow the Company to optimally manage each business
independently, leading to improved performance and more efficient capital
allocation. Our analysis demonstrates that a separation will eliminate
current misunderstandings of the businesses, allow investors to focus on
valuing pure-play assets, and alleviate the investment community’s
concerns about poor capital allocation.
Based on
Timken’s financial disclosures, its Bearings and Steel Businesses each
compare favorably to peers’ as measured by return on invested capital,
operating margins, and revenue growth. Separating the businesses will
illuminate the dramatic operating improvements made at the Bearings
Business and the transformation underway at the Steel Business. This
process will enable investors to appropriately value the improved earnings
profile of the businesses. Therefore, it is logical that both businesses
would trade at multiples near the high end of their peer range.
Now is the
Optimal Time to Separate the Businesses
Now is the
optimal time to separate the businesses because the costs of a sub-optimal
business mix compound over time. By focusing management on optimally
managing each independent business now, shareholders will be in a position
to realize enhanced value from the elimination of the trading discount and
the improved long-term operating performance of the underlying businesses.
Timken’s $1.4B of balance sheet flexibility enables each entity to pursue
optimal capital structures.
Relational’s Response to Timken Management Commentary
Timken
management has twice spoken publicly regarding our proposal. In a November
29th press release responding to our Schedule 13D, management
asserted that "[a]s a market leader in high-quality engineered steel
products, our steel business leverages the same expertise and know-how
that we apply across our businesses. We have significant technology, cost
and revenue synergies between our bearing and steel businesses as well as
diversification benefits in continuing to operate under our current
structure. These synergies and benefits, coupled with a potential
reduction in financial flexibility, among other factors, led the Board to
conclude that the separation of the businesses at this time would not be
in the best interests of Timken shareholders." More recently, during the
Q&A of the Company’s Q4 earnings call on January 24th an
investor asked management what criteria did the decision not to spin-off
the steel business hinge on and what factors would make the decision to
spin the steel business more attractive in the future. Management
responded “…if you dive to the next level of the analysis, you very
quickly come to some of the pension issues that Glenn talked about that we
actually are valued at a premium from a cash flow point of view largely
because of the pensions. You come to issues of growth and then you come to
issues of earnings volatility and sustainability. And we have been
implementing over the past half-dozen years of very aggressive strategy
that is addressing those and we continue to have steps that we can take…”
However,
these points that management has tried to make do not hold up to close
analytical scrutiny:
1)
Synergies of integration are minimal and are significantly lower than
current trading discount.
In the
November 29th press release response to our proposal, the
Company claimed that there are substantial synergies between its Bearings
and Steel Businesses, particularly driven by selling synergies and shared
material knowledge. This argument was not repeated on the Company’s
January 24th earnings call. Our extensive analysis shows that
the cost benefits and revenue synergies between the businesses are
minimal. During both our meetings we asked management to quantify the
synergies between the Bearings and Steel Businesses. As you know,
management was unable to quantify any meaningful benefits during those
meetings or in subsequent public communications with investors. SKF
(Swedish Exchange, ticker: SKFB), one of Timken’s closest public bearings
peers has excelled operationally and its shareholders have been rewarded
since the company divested its vertically integrated steel business, Ovako,
in 2005. We are confident that any small cost benefits or revenue
synergies that may exist can be maintained following the split through
joint venture agreements covering R&D spending, material procurement,
combined selling, and/or any other business functions. These agreements
have been used successfully before, including by SKF and Ovako.
Additionally, Timken’s bearings operations are predominately located
outside of Ohio and are not directly integrated with the steel facilities.
Incremental
executive compensation required to operate both businesses independently,
in our view, would be minimal. Timken already effectively pays two CEOs.
In 2011, President and CEO Jim Griffith made $13M and you, the founder’s
great-great grandson made $9M for serving as “Executive Chairman, ” an
amount that appears to be dramatically out of line with standard industry
compensation for similar “executives”, as discussed in detail below. In
fact, the excessive compensation you received can be used to substantially
offset the cost of adding a second executive team.
2) The
diversification benefits you cite are not worth the cost.
The
Company’s November 29th press release argued that the current
diversification benefits will be lost if the businesses are separated. The
reality is the diversification benefits you cited in defending Timken’s
current structure, in our opinion, cause Timken’s trading discount by
confusing investors and obscuring the dramatic operating improvements in
the underlying businesses. Investors do not need you to diversify for
them. The significant discount investors are applying to Timken’s stock
shows the market’s clear preference for pure-play steel or bearings
alternatives.
3) Both
companies will have substantial financial flexibility and the pension
liability has been mitigated to the point that it is no longer an issue
following a separation.
The same
November 29th press release cites a decrease in the Company’s
financial flexibility following a separation as a reason to maintain the
current structure and on the January 24th earnings call
management pointed to the Company’s pension as a reason the businesses
needed to stay together. As you should know, the two issues are linked,
and neither presents a real obstacle to separating the businesses. With
net cash of over $100M and available liquidity of $1.4B6,
Timken has significant financial resources and flexibility to ensure that
both the Steel and Bearings Businesses are well-capitalized following the
separation. Both businesses would have ample funding for their pension and
capital expenditure needs while maintaining credit metrics superior to
their peers’. The Company has invested over $1.3B into its pension plan
over the last 4 years to bring the unfunded liability down to $398M at the
end of 2012. CFO Glenn Eisenberg has stated that the pension plan will be
nearly fully funded by the end of 2013 and that the Company will annuitize
a significant portion of the gross liability, removing it from the balance
sheet. The Company’s $1.4B of liquidity could easily be used to fund that
pension liability. While the pension may have hindered the Company’s
strategic options in the past, we do not find the Company’s assertion that
it lacks the ability to sufficiently fund its pension to be credible. The
reduced size of the underfunded pension liability also makes it unlikely
to be a driver behind Timken’s trading discount.
4) Timken
does not trade at a premium to peers on cash flow. It trades at a
substantial discount on any cash flow measure that is relevant to
investors.
On the
January 24th call, management asserted that Timken trades at a
premium to peers on cash flow metrics. Management relies on a non-standard
calculation of cash flow that we believe is severely flawed. Investors
will normally adjust GAAP cash flows for voluntary cash outflows related
to pension obligations accrued over previous decades that will not be
repeated in future years (since the pension will be fully funded at the
end of this year). These voluntary, temporary contributions should not be
included as a recurring cash flow. Additionally investors can see that a
temporary spike in capital expenditures (before returning to Company
guided 4% of sales in 2H14) and the corresponding build-up of working
capital should not be seen as permanently impairing free cash generation
and should be backed out of the multiple. Once cash flows are normalized,
Timken trades at a substantial discount to peers on pension-adjusted EV/FCF,
just as it does on pension-adjusted EV/EBITDA.
5) Growth
and earnings volatility are a reason to separate the businesses, not keep
them together.
On the
January 24th call, management proposed Timken’s earnings
volatility as a reason the businesses should remain combined. The high
earnings volatility and capital intensity of the Steel Business have
masked the continually improving margin performance of the Bearings
Business over the last five years. The combination of these businesses is
driving the discount in Timken’s share price. The only way to eliminate
that discount is by separating the businesses.
Spin-off
Transactions have Created Substantial Value for Shareholder’s in the Past
As noted
above, in 2005 Timken’s closest bearings peer, SKF separated its steel
business, Ovako, into a separate company. SKF concluded that the
separation offered a structural solution, allowing shareholders to focus
on the bearings business and SKF to move to a more variable cost
structure.
SKF entered
into long-term supply agreements with Ovako to ensure a continued supply
of high-quality bearing steel and prevent the loss of technology. During
the 20 months7 from SKF’s announcement of the separation to
finalization of the transaction, the stock returned 59% vs. Timken’s
return of 10% over the same period.
On January
13, 2011 Marathon Oil (ticker: MRO) announced a plan to separate its
refining operations into a separate publicly-traded corporation, Marathon
Petroleum (ticker: MPC), allowing the remaining company (ticker: MRO) to
focus on exploration and production. The company cited expected benefits
of enhanced flexibility to optimally operate each business, improved
transparency to the market, and a better ability to attract talent as
driving forces behind the separation. Over the six months8 from
the announcement to finalization of the separation, the stock returned 40%
compared to only 10% for the S&P 500 Energy Index.
The
outperformance often seen after spin-off transactions is generally driven
by investor expectations of increased operating performance in the
long-term as a result of improved management focus:
“Historically, spinoffs have worked out well. The common thread that runs
through all of this is, if you boil it down, the management focus. They go
from being unwieldy conglomerates with different businesses competing for
capital and management’s attention, to being more focused entities. Often
that translates into better financial performance that should work its way
into the stock.”9
Separation
should not be disruptive to Timken employees and the Community
There
should be no meaningful disruption for the Canton community and Timken’s
employees through the separation of the two businesses. The Timken name
and Canton headquarters can survive with both companies as independent
entities. We also believe that additional employment may be needed to help
operate the two companies as independent businesses. In our financial
model, we assume corporate costs increase $25M per year as a result of the
separation, which includes costs for new employment. We do not advocate or
expect any change in employment levels at Timken’s steel or bearings
operations.
History of
Poor Corporate Governance
The Timken
Company has a history of poor corporate governance and a Board that is
excessively influenced by the Timken family. Members of the Timken family
represent nearly a third of Timken’s twelve person board, including a
former executive, the current Executive Chairman, and another family
member who sits on the Audit committee and yet is considered independent
by the Board.
In 2008, a
majority of the shareholders passed a proposal to declassify Timken’s
Board of Directors. The Company chose to ignore the voice of its
shareholders and refused to declassify the Board (until 2010). The
following year, three of the four Directors standing for election had more
than 50% of the non-affiliated10 shares withheld, in spite of
having no opposing candidates. The fourth candidate had 43% withheld. The
following year the Chair of the Compensation Committee, John Luke, Jr.,
had 49% of non-affiliated votes withheld. All five Directors remain on the
Board and John Luke, Jr. remains Chairman of the Compensation Committee.
The
Company’s corporate governance and compensation practices have not
improved sufficiently in the recent past. For the 2012 proxy vote,
Glass-Lewis recommended shareholders withhold support from 3 of the 4
board nominees and gave the Company’s pay-for-performance scheme a “D”
rating. An excerpt is below:
“The
Company has been deficient in linking executive pay to corporate
performance in the past year, as indicated by the "D" grade received by
the Company in Glass Lewis' pay-for-performance model (see page 4).
Shareholders should be concerned with this disconnect. A properly
structured pay program should motivate executives to drive corporate
performance, thus aligning executive and long-term shareholder interests.
In this case, as indicated by the poor grade, the Company has not
implemented such a program. In our view, shareholders should be concerned
with the compensation committee's failure in this area.”
Additionally, the $9M compensation received by Ward Timken, Jr., the
great-great grandson of the founder and owner of less than 0.5% of
outstanding shares, in 2011 for his role as “Executive Chairman” makes him
the highest paid executive chairman in Timken’s peer group11
and is 3.4x the group average and 4.1x the group median (ex-Timken). The
chart below is provided for detail:
|
Ticker |
|
Company |
|
Market
Capitalization
($m) |
|
|
|
Name |
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2011
Total
Compensation
($m) |
TKR |
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Timken Co |
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$5,138 |
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Ward
J. Timken Jr. |
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$9.42 |
FCN
|
|
FTI
Consulting |
|
$1,364
|
|
|
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Dennis
J. Shaughnessy |
|
$7.46
|
GEF
|
|
Greif
Bros Corp |
|
$2,226
|
|
|
|
Michael
J. Gasser |
|
$4.42
|
JBHT
|
|
Hunt,
J.B. Transport Services |
|
$7,906
|
|
|
|
Kirk
Thompson |
|
$3.55
|
ROL
|
|
Rollins
Inc |
|
$3,629
|
|
|
|
R.
Randall Rollins |
|
$2.57
|
KSU
|
|
Kansas
City Southern |
|
$10,246
|
|
|
|
Michael
R. Haverty |
|
$2.38
|
PKG
|
|
Packaging Corp of America |
|
$3,774
|
|
|
|
Paul T.
Stecko |
|
$2.24
|
CXW
|
|
Corrections Corp of America |
|
$3,791
|
|
|
|
John D.
Ferguson |
|
$1.73
|
WERN
|
|
Werner
Enterprises Inc |
|
$1,721
|
|
|
|
Gary L.
Werner |
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$1.43
|
MSM
|
|
MSC
Industrial Direct A |
|
$4,964
|
|
|
|
Mitchell Jacobson |
|
$1.31
|
IPI
|
|
Intrepid Potash Inc |
|
$1,754
|
|
|
|
Robert
P. Jornayvaz III |
|
$1.01
|
|
|
|
Median
ex-TKR ($M) |
|
$3,701
|
|
|
|
|
|
$2.31
|
|
|
Mean
ex-TKR ($M) |
|
$4,138
|
|
|
|
|
|
$2.81
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We are
convinced that Timken’s refusal to act in shareholders’ best interests and
separate the two dissimilar businesses is emblematic of the Company’s poor
corporate governance practices.
Conclusion
The case
for the separation of the steel business is highly compelling. Timken is
well positioned financially and operationally to effectuate this
transaction and eliminate the current discount in its share price.
Management’s arguments against this transaction are not supported by
empirical evidence and indeed further a self serving agenda which impairs
shareholder value by causing Timken to trade at a discount as long as
these businesses remain together, in our view. Timken’s main Bearings
competitor, SKF AB’s successful execution in separating its steel business
provides strong evidence that this type of transaction will enhance
Timken’s competitive position and create value for shareholders in the
long-term.
We implore
the Board to recognize what the investment community is communicating
through Timken’s significant discounted stock price, analyst reports,
shareholder sentiment, and our detailed presentation. Separation of
Timken’s businesses, as broadly believed by the investment community,
should create meaningful enhanced shareholder value; enhanced investment
market appreciation for Timken’s businesses and enhanced long term
potential for these businesses and the communities they serve. We are
confident that our effort will garner the support of a significant
majority of the non-affiliated shareholders.
We will
continue to dialogue with shareholders and the broader investment
community about our analysis, emphasizing the value creation potential of
a separation of the Bearings and Steel businesses. As set forth in this
letter, we know our message has traction. Our expectation is that
investors will communicate their support directly to the Board and
management, reserving the opportunity to express more formally their
concerns with the Company’s inaction through their votes on the CalSTRS
proposal, which Relational is fully supporting.
We urge
Timken’s Board to act now to unlock Timken’s true value, appreciate your
role as a director of the Company and look forward to a continuing
constructive dialog.
Finally, we
would appreciate your assistance in ensuring that a copy of this letter
reaches each member of the Board.
Sincerely,
Ralph
V. Whitworth |
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Anne E.
Sheehan |
Principal |
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Director of Corporate Governance |
Relational Investors LLC |
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California State Teachers’ Retirement System |
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Enclosures
Distribution: |
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Mr.
John M. Ballbach |
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Mr.
Phillip R. Cox |
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Ms.
Diane C. Creel |
Mr.
James W. Griffith |
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Mr.
John A. Luke Jr. |
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Mr.
Joseph W. Ralston |
Mr.
John P. Reilly |
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Mr.
Frank C. Sullivan |
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Mr.
John M. Timken Jr. |
Mr.
Ward J. Timken |
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Ms.
Jacqueline F. Woods |
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cc:
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Mr.
William R. Burkhart, Senior Vice President and General Counsel
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Mr.
Steve Tschiegg, Director – Capital Markets and Investor Relations
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Relevant
Analyst Reports
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, 11/14/2012
William Blair, 11/28/2012
Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 2/4/2013
Jefferies, 11/29/2012
KeyBanc, 12/6/2012
Additional
Sell-Side Commentary
SunTrust
Robinson Humphrey Report from November 14, 2012
“Timken is
worth $69 on a sum-of-the-parts basis. However, the presence of the more
volatile specialty steel business suggests a material 20%-type
conglomerate discount will likely persist, in our opinion.”
“A case
could be made for a narrowing of the conglomerate discount if the
management signaled a potential separation.”
William
Blair Report from November 28, 2012
“In the
long run, however, we agree with Relational and CalSTRS’s positioning that
the company would perform better if it separated into two separate
entities. As only 10% of steel volumes are used in the bearings business,
vertical integration is limited. Also, given the highly volatile nature of
the steel industry (steel operating profit fell $320M over four quarters
in 2009), we believe that Timken’s valuation multiple is negatively
affected, particularly during an upcycle. Management has confirmed this
since we started covering the company in 2009. While there are multiple
issues to splitting up the company, we believe that the bearing business
could be revalued given the high-margin nature and large emerging markets
exposure that garners higher growth rates. Given high profitability and
specialized nature of the steel product, we believe the steel business
could be floated at relatively solid multiples…”
Bank of
America Merrill Lynch Report from February 4, 2013
“Timken
shares look very cheap to us at 6.7x 2013E EBITDA, a 24% discount to
Swedish competitor SKF. Our $70 price objective would put Timken at 8.5x
2013E EV/EBITDA, essentially in line with SKF today…Timken is also being
valued below some pure play, higher quality steel companies, which is
completely unwarranted, in our view.”
“Driving
the push for a spin, Timken shares have de-rated relative to SKF over the
last 5-10 years. SKF divested its steel business (which was much less
profitable than Timken’s, which is highly profitable with high returns)
via a joint venture that pooled three companies’ steelmaking facilities in
2005. SKF had a high single digit P/E for much of the early 2000s and now
trades at 13.7x consensus 2013 EPS (and 15.8x BofA). During that same
time, despite significant portfolio improvements at Timken, Timken has
steadily de-rated relative to SKF…This leaves Timken at a 6% [P/E]
discount to SKF on consensus estimates, and a 20% [P/E] discount on BofA
estimates.”
Please see
page 6 of the report for charts supporting the quotation above.
Jefferies
Report from November 29, 2012
“Our sum of
the parts…suggests a valuation closer to $55, but we agree [with
Relational] that the market is unlikely to properly reward either the
steel or bearings businesses for the secular improvements they have made
as long as these businesses remain combined.”
“…we
believe management will continue to oppose this path [spin] near term, and
see [stock price] risk to the high [$]30’s if we lose today’s spin
premium…”
KeyBanc
Report from December 6, 2012
“Given
management’s position on the issue, we do not view a separation as a
likely event in the near term. That said, we agree with Relational (and
management, for that matter), that a valuation disconnect exists,
especially when we think about the progress TKR has made operationally and
financially in the context of the current multiple…”
1
James Kawai, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, 11/14/2012
2 Stephen Volkmann, Jefferies Group, 11/29/2012
3 Samuel Eisner, William Blair, 11/28/2012. Though the analyst
acknowledges management’s concerns regarding a separation in the
short-term, he believes that a separation is optimal in the long-term.
4 11/28/2012
5 As of 2/15/2013
6 As stated by management on 1/24/13 earnings call
7 2/28/2005-10/31/2006. Source: Bloomberg
8 1/12/2011-7/5/2011. Source: Bloomberg
9 Joe Cornell, founding principal of Spin-Off Advisors LLC
11/29/2012, Source: Bloomberg
10 Assumes all Timken Family, Timken Foundation, and Company
Investment Plan shares are voted for Management
11 Peer group defined as all companies in the S&P 400 Index
Industrials and Materials sectors that had an executive chairman for
full-year 2011
Contacts
Media:
Kekst and Company
Robert Siegfried or Donald C. Cutler
212-521-4832 or 415-852-3903
or
Investors:
Okapi Partners LLC
Bruce H. Goldfarb/Charles W. Garske/Geofrey Sorbello
212-297–0720
info@okapipartners.com |